Financing Gaps and Lack of Liquidity: the rf’s Economy Is Entering a Dangerous Phase

russia’s economy is entering the final phase of 2025 with a sharp deterioration in corporate performance, an increase in non-payments by state structures, and a deepening crisis in entire sectors. The cumulative net financial result of organizations in January–September decreased by 7.7 % year-on-year, signaling the rapid depletion of business resilience under pressure from budget constraints, sanctions, and increased military spending.

Profitability of companies is rapidly declining: the cumulative losses of russian organizations over nine months increased by almost a quarter year-on-year, having reached 6.52 trillion rubles. A total of 18,400 enterprises reported losses – by 11 % more than last year. This surge is largely explained by the breakdown in payment discipline on the part of state-owned corporations: they generate the bulk of demand in a number of key industries, but in 2025 they became the main source of financing gaps.

Since the beginning of the year, regulators have opened 1,173 administrative cases concerning non-payment in public procurement, which is already by 20 % more than in the whole of 2024 (980). Small businesses are experiencing a particularly sharp deterioration: the number of complaints about state-owned companies’ failure to fulfill their contractual obligations has increased 2.5 times, from 200 complaints totaling 1.5 billion rubles last year to 482 complaints totaling 3.6 billion rubles as of November. For many companies, this means a loss of working capital and forced closure.

The coal industry remains a critical problem area. The share of loss-making enterprises in the sector jumped to 68.1 % in January–September, compared to 52 % a year earlier. The cumulative loss reached 309.2 billion rubles, with 46 billion rubles added in the last month alone.

The weakness of the manufacturing sector is already being reflected in the consumer market. Food inflation has reached 7.97 % year-on-year, with some items showing sharp price increases: cucumbers have risen in price by 24.07 % since the beginning of November alone, and tomatoes – by 8.54 %. The 13.26 % increase in petrol prices compared to 2024 is intensifying inflationary pressure throughout the supply chain.

The automotive industry, which previously served as an indicator of investment demand, is also showing a collapse: passenger car production decreased by 46.7 % in October. Such a sharp decline indicates not only the weakness of the domestic market, but also the limited access to technology and components.

Together, these factors form a picture of systemic  imbalance of the economy. Business losses are growing faster than the government can compensate for them with budget injections. In 2025, russia’s economy is increasingly showing structural cracks that are becoming difficult to mask even with military demand.