A Wave of Non-Payments Gaining Momentum in russia’s Economy

During the first five months of 2026, the problem of non-payments in the russian economy has noticeably worsened. Companies’ overdue accounts receivable reached $112.53 billion (8.99 trillion rubles), which is by 9.9% more than at the beginning of the year. Its share of total accounts receivable rose from 6.2% to 6.7%, while the number of companies with overdue debts increased to 18,298. The accumulated amount is already nearly equal to 4% of russia’s projected GDP for 2026. This is not a direct indicator of losses, but it clearly illustrates the scale of the crisis in inter-company payments.

The main reason is that it takes buyers and customers longer to pay their bills. As a result, money does not reach suppliers, who in turn delay their own payments, and the chain of non-payments spreads throughout the economy. The situation is exacerbated by high interest rates, a slowdown in economic growth, and the reallocation of state resources to finance the war against Ukraine.

This hits small and medium-sized businesses the hardest, as they have limited financial reserves and are virtually unable to secure loans. Large companies, on the other hand, often deliberately delay payments to suppliers, effectively using them as a source of free financing. Exporters have also found themselves in a more difficult situation: the share of overdue debt in this sector has already exceeded 9% due to problems with international payments, delays in transfers, and difficulties in repatriating foreign currency proceeds.

Even the close to the kremlin center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting has acknowledged that official statistics do not paint the full picture. Companies often do not classify debts as overdue but simply amend contract terms or extend payment deadlines. As a result, the actual scale of non-payments is significantly greater than the official figures.

The rise in overdue debt indicates that russian businesses are increasingly replacing bank loans with delayed payments to their counterparties. With high interest rates, this has become one of the few ways to keep enterprises operating. This model makes the economy more vulnerable to a chain reaction of defaults. At the same time, the continued diversion of state and credit resources to the military-industrial complex will only exacerbate the shortage of funds in civilian sectors and deepen the imbalances in the russian economy.