According to Lithuanian Intelligence, minsk Uses Political Prisoners As Bargaining Chips While Remaining moscow’s Satellite

Easing sanctions against belarus will strengthen the regime’s economic stability but will not reduce its dependence on russia. This is the conclusion reached by the Lithuanian Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Service and the State Security Service in their annual report on threats to national security.

Despite its declared interest in normalizing relations with the West, lukashenko’s regime has no intention of softening its authoritarian course. The regime cynically exploits public meetings with Western officials in its own propaganda, promoting the narrative of belarus’ allegedly irreplaceable role in ensuring regional security.

Lithuanian Intelligence considers the release of prominent representatives of the democratic opposition and other political prisoners to be nothing more than a bargaining chip. “The use of political prisoners as a tool of pressure is a long-standing tactic of the belarusian regime,” reads the document. The goal is to get the West to make concessions or lift sanctions, not to demonstrate genuine goodwill.

Despite the rhetoric about “warm relations”, minsk’s behavior toward Lithuania and neighboring countries will remain aggressive in the near future. belarus will deny involvement in hostile actions and spread propaganda portraying Lithuania as an aggressor.

The report also points out the increased activity of the belarusian kgb, which is recruiting representatives of the diaspora in Lithuania via messengers in exchange for financial rewards, the opportunity to renew documents, and free entry into belarus. The aim is to gather information about the diaspora and democratic forces.

Besides, the report covers the belarusian military-industrial complex’s participation in supplying the russian army fighting against Ukraine, attempts by minsk and moscow to obtain dual-use technologies through front companies, the “Zapad 2025” military exercises, the deployment of the “Oreshnik” missile system on belarusian territory, and plans to expand the belarusian nuclear power plant.