Beijing Is Waiting for Its Chance: Political Turbulence in Seoul Plays into China’s Hands

The internal political crisis in South Korea caused by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s removal from power has created favorable conditions for China, which is interested in weakening Seoul’s strategic ties with Washington. This is stated in the study by the Royal Institute of International Affairs “Chatham House”.

Despite official statements about its desire to cooperate with South Korea and Japan, Beijing is actively using the trade war with the United States and regional countries as leverage. The latest increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods and China’s retaliatory tariffs and export restrictions create additional economic risks for South Korea. Beijing will try to use this to weaken American influence in the region.

The political crisis has exacerbated the internal split in South Korea and called into question the further stability of Seoul’s foreign policy. Under the presidency of Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea significantly strengthened its strategic relations with the United States and Japan, in particular by signing the Washington Declaration and holding the trilateral summit at Camp David.

Political instability in the Republic of Korea increases the likelihood of politicians focused on rapprochement with China coming to power. Lee Jae-myung, the likely candidate from the leftist Democratic Party in the upcoming elections, has previously criticized the expansion of the US military presence in South Korea, sympathizing with China’s position on the ban on the deployment of US air defense systems on the Korean Peninsula. This creates an additional incentive for Beijing to influence the electoral process.

Under such circumstances, any next president of South Korea will face extraordinary challenges, including not only the domestic division in society, but also serious geopolitical pressure from China.