belarus’ Economy in 2026: Slowdown with No Prospects for Recovery

In their forecasts for 2026, international financial institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank, describe belarusian economy as a system entering a phase of prolonged slowdown. The key factors remain the same: sanctions pressure, limited access to external capital markets, and structural dependence on the rf’s economy, which itself is showing  signs of weakening.

Economists are considering several scenarios for 2026, none of which envisages a full recovery. The baseline scenario, which is considered the most likely, is based on weak growth amid declining demand from the rf – belarus’ key trading partner. Government investment programs and domestic consumer demand will partially offset the decline, but inflationary pressure will persist due to imported inflation from the rf  and labor shortages. GDP growth is expected to be only 1.4–1.8 %, inflation  – 7–7.5 %, while  the belarusian ruble is expected to gradually weaken from 2.9 per US dollar at the beginning of the year to 3.2–3.4 at the end. Real household incomes will formally grow, but this growth will be inflationary in nature.

The negative scenario, which is also considered likely, is associated with a further deterioration of the economic situation in russia, prolongation or tightening of EU sanctions against belarus, and exhaustion of fiscal and monetary support instruments. Under such circumstances, even limited growth becomes doubtful.

The positive scenario remains rather theoretical and depends on foreign policy decisions, first of all  the easing of sanctions on potash fertilizer exports. In the absence of such a step by the EU, any positive effect will be fragmentary and will not have a cumulative impact.

The overall assessment of international experts is unequivocal: in 2026, belarus’ economy will remain vulnerable and structurally limited. Critical dependence on the dynamics of the rf, lack of diversification of foreign economic relations, and sanctions pressure do not allow to count on sustainable growth even in the medium term.