CEPA: russia and China Have Created a “Meta-Threat” to Democracies

The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), an American think tank, has released a report proposing a reevaluation of the very logic behind countering russia and China. Instead of treating them as two separate threats, analysts suggest framing them as a single, shared “meta-threat” that arises specifically from the combination of the two regimes, rather than from the actions of each individually.

Key conclusion: relations between moscow and Beijing are asymmetrical but stable. China helps russia adapt to sanctions, maintain a militarized economy, and replace lost Western markets. But it does so on its own terms: Chinese banks avoid excessive sanctions risks, and all economic cooperation is structured so that Beijing benefits first and foremost. As a result, russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China: goods, technology, financial channels, and markets. China, at this, retains its freedom of maneuver.

In the military sphere, there is no full-fledged alliance, but there are regular consultations, joint exercises, and coordinated positions on security issues. russia needs Beijing’s political and technological support. China needs russia as a tool to pressure the USA  and a way to establish a foothold in Eurasia.

CEPA specifically highlights the information and technology dimension. Here, two approaches complement each other: China’s capabilities in artificial intelligence, digital surveillance, and control are combined with russia’s expertise in disinformation and cyber influence. For open societies, this means increased pressure on multiple fronts – from manipulation on social media to the imposition of authoritarian technological standards.

Finally, both countries are actively promoting an alternative world order through BRICS, the SCO, infrastructure projects, and energy cooperation. Its essence is simple: sovereignty and stability are more important than human rights and democracy. The Global South is the main audience for this message.

The authors of the CEPA warn against two extremes: this convergence should not be viewed as temporary or insubstantial, but reducing it to a single monolithic bloc is also a mistake. The practical conclusion: the West must shift from separately containing moscow and Beijing to a comprehensive strategy to counter their joint system of influence.