Corporate russia Slowly Cannibalizing Itself

The rb’s corporate sector has accumulated over $117.5 billion in overdue receivables. By the end of February 2026, the share of non-performing payments had reached 6.7% and amounts to approximately 3.8% of the country’s GDP. These figures are cited in the central bank of the rf’s “financial stability review” for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

The situation is the worst in the extractive industry, where the share of overdue payments exceeds 8%. In manufacturing and trade, this figure reaches about 7%. In other words, it is precisely those sectors which the rf presents as the foundation of its “resilient” war economy that generate the largest volume of non-payments.

At this, the central bank of the rf is trying to reassure the markets: the regulator does not identify any “systemic risks to financial stability”. Yet it acknowledges the deterioration of corporate sector indicators.

Another telling fact is that a significant portion of non-payments occurs outside the banking system. Companies are increasingly settling accounts with one another through deferred payments, effectively turning ordinary transactions into inter-corporate loans. This allows them to maintain the appearance of operational activity without officially turning to banks. However, this merely postpones the problem rather than resolving it.

The consequences are predictable. Businesses are becoming increasingly dependent on expensive short-term financing to maintain liquidity. Investment programs are being scaled back. Large companies, by delaying payments, shift their own financial problems onto suppliers and contractors, most of whom are small and medium-sized businesses. For banks, the rise in non-performing assets means new risks on their balance sheets.

Small and medium-sized businesses find themselves in the most vulnerable position in this scheme. The rise in the share of non-performing loans increases the likelihood of bankruptcies or takeovers by larger players. Corporate russia is slowly cannibalizing itself.