Finland’s Military Intelligence: russia Remains a Key Source of Military Risks for Northern Europe

The Finnish Defense Forces Intelligence Agency (PVTIEDL) has published its “Finnish Military Intelligence Review 2025”, which provides a comprehensive analysis of key security trends, potential threat scenarios, and strategic challenges at the national and global levels. The document points out that after Finland’s accession to NATO, its importance as a priority target for russian intelligence activities has increased significantly.

The Review identifies russia as the main factor in the formation of military risks for Finland and Europe, which is associated with the modernization of its nuclear arsenal and large-scale reform of its armed forces. After the end of the russian-Ukrainian war, moscow is likely to focus its attention on the northwestern strategic direction and accelerate military reforms.

Separate emphasis is placed on the gradual strengthening of China as a global center of political, economic, and military influence with a horizon of 2049. Beijing is consistently building up its military capabilities, particularly in the naval sphere, taking advantage of the fact that russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine is distracting the West’s strategic attention.

The Baltic Sea is identified as one of the key areas of security competition between the West and russia. The kremlin combines military activity in the region with risks of sabotage of critical infrastructure and interference with Finland’s navigation systems. The Rewiew emphasizes that more than 40% of russia’s foreign trade, including energy, passes through the Baltic Sea.

The Arctic is also becoming strategically important as an area of interest for russia and China, with moscow seeking to establish the Northern Sea Route as an international trade route. PVTIEDL points out  that in the medium term, the russian-Ukrainian war remains a key factor in deterring russia’s military activity in the Baltic region. At the same time, with limited opportunities for direct escalation, russia will increasingly use hybrid tools, including sabotage against submarine and port infrastructure and interference with NATO countries’ navigation systems.