From Angola to Guyana: a New Oil Order Without moscow

Amid tensions surrounding the Persian Gulf, some market analysts have begun to talk about russia’s possible return to its role as a key supplier of hydrocarbons to Europe. However, the real picture is much more complicated.

About 82% of the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian markets, not Europe. Moreover, at the beginning of the year, excess production created a certain supply buffer, which reduces the severity of the situation.

The competitive landscape is not in moscow’s favour either. Angola, Nigeria, and Algeria are increasing their capacity: Algeria plans to reach 1 million barrels per day, Nigeria – 2.1 million by the end of the year. The African Energy Council forecasts $22 billion in investment in continental production in 2026. In Latin America, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina account for almost half of global production among non-OPEC+ countries. Brazil is aiming for 4 million barrels per day this year, while Guyana is targeting 1 million thanks to ExxonMobil technology.

Oman stands out as a country that is developing its port infrastructure as a regional transshipment hub: this year, an agreement was signed to build a pipeline to the Ras Markaz terminal in Duqm.

Reputation remains a key barrier. The use of energy supplies as a political tool has already cemented russia’s status as an unreliable partner. The current market situation is not critical for the West and is clearly unfavorable for moscow.