moscow Is Tightening Its Control over minsk’s Policies, Minimizing the Space for Independence

russia is tightening its control over domestic political processes in belarus, seeking to minimize the risks of unforeseen change of the regime and its foreign policy course.

According to Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), the platform for this is the union state, where the actions of the ministry of foreign affairs are actively coordinated and integration programs are implemented. moscow is reacting more and more sharply even to minsk’s minimal attempts to pursue a more independent policy, in particular to restore economic contacts with Europe, which automatically reduces russian influence.

According to SAB’s estimates, a change of power in belarus without the kremlin’s consent is seen as a threat, so moscow seeks to ensure the next leader’s structural dependence on a pro-russian course. Despite the lack of direct control over lukashenko’s policies, both sides are trying to avoid a repeat of the 2020 protests. russia will block any steps minsk takes toward rapprochement with the EU if they contradict the kremlin’s interests.

Economic cooperation between the two regimes is increasingly taking on a military character. About 500 belarusian enterprises are integrated into russian military production, including a project to build a drone factory with a capacity of up to 100,000 units per year. belarus annually supplies about 480,000 artillery and missile munitions for russian systems.

SAB emphasizes that the war against Ukraine has confirmed that belarus’ civilian economy is in fact working for moscow’s military needs, allowing the regime to avoid direct participation in hostilities but still reap economic benefits. In the long term, minsk’s role in russia’s military-industrial plans will only grow.