Oslo Observes Increasing Risks of Sabotage and Cyberattacks Against NATO and Support for Ukraine

The Norwegian Intelligence Service (E-tjeneste), the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST), and the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM) have published a joint assessment of the security environment for 2026, entitled “Nasjonal trusselvurdering for 2026”.

During the presentation, Minister of Defence of Norway T. O. Sandvik called russia the main threat to the security of his country and its allies.

In the document, the special services note an increase in hybrid threats from the rf, China, and Iran. Those states are increasingly combining intelligence and cyber operations, influence operations, sabotage, recruitment, and economic pressure. According to Norway, this approach is systemic and aimed at undermining the stability of state institutions in the long term.

The document specifically points out the intensification of the rf’s espionage and sabotage activities against Norway and its allies. russian secret services will focus on monitoring NATO military facilities and exercises, gathering information about support for Ukraine and the situation in the Arctic, and influencing energy infrastructure. At the same time, the likelihood of sabotage as a tool to hinder military and political support for Ukraine is increasing.

The assessment also points to growing strategic risks in the Arctic and attempts to revise the status quo in the region. Norwegian security services emphasize that any changes in the regional balance, particularly around Greenland, will have a direct impact on the actions of russia and China in the northern latitudes.

In its recommendations, E-tjeneste calls on government agencies and the private sector to move from reactive to proactive risk management. Priorities include strengthening protection against espionage, sabotage, and cyberattacks; preparing business continuity plans in case of crises or war; and systemically using intelligence assessments in strategic planning. This approach reflects the perception of threats as long-term and structural.