Polish Counterintelligence Has Exposed the Scale of russian-belarusian Operations

In its public report, the Internal Security Agency (ABW) pointed out that the years 2024–2025 marked a period of unprecedented intelligence and sabotage activity on the part of russia and its junior partner, belarus. The scale of the operations, the number of arrests, and the number of cases opened are unprecedented in the history of Polish counterintelligence.

According to the ABW, the kremlin is waging an undeclared war against the West – using methods honed in Ukraine prior to 2022. The strategic goal remains unchanged: to destabilize Euro-Atlantic structures from within, undermine public trust in the state and its institutions, and shake internal unity. The tools include sabotage, espionage, disinformation, fueling social polarization, and exploiting historical conflicts, particularly in Polish-Ukrainian relations.

A fundamental shift noted by Polish counterintelligence is the transition from chaotic, one-off recruitments to the establishment of complex networked centres embedded within organized crime circles. moscow is deliberately escalating its actions: targets now include not only military and strategic facilities but also areas where civilians congregate. Warsaw’s response was the systematic closure of three russian consulates.

moscow’s actions have forced Poland to rethink the very architecture of its own security: to build a regional counterintelligence network, strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure, and, for the first time in decades, return to the practice of the security services’ public accountability.

belarus is not an independent player in this scheme, but rather a tool of the rf. minsk has focused on eliminating the belarusian opposition operating from Poland and collecting  intelligence on Polish and allied armed forces. minsk’s methods resemble criminal coercion: recruitment takes place on belarusian territory through blackmail and direct physical pressure, and agents are then attempted to be transferred to Poland. At the same time, belarus’ intelligence services try to recruit Polish citizens who regularly visit the rb and to conduct operational activities among the Polish minority in the country.