russia Is Drowning in Debt: Corporate Defaults Have Reached the Level of the Crisis of 2008

russian businesses are sinking deeper and deeper into a debt quagmire. Overdue accounts receivable in the corporate sector have risen by 26% – from $79.3 billion to $100 billion – and their share of the total has reached 10.3%. This is the worst figure since the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. The kremlin is methodically destroying what remains of the business climate in the country.

The total volume of accounts receivable has remained virtually unchanged at $1.6 trillion, but this is a deceptive stability. Corporate accounts payable reached $650.9 billion, while the share of overdue obligations rose from 6.9% to 8.2%. Payment chains are breaking down across the entire economy.

The state’s interest rate policy the is the key mechanism of self-destruction. Average interest rates on business loans in 2025 remained at 18–25% per annum, while the profitability of most industries was 8–12%. At the same time, short-term deposits yielded 14–16%. The math is simple: paying contractors is unprofitable; keeping money in a deposit account is profitable. Companies are overwhelmingly choosing the second option, shifting the burden onto their partners in the supply chain.

The aggregate financial result of russian companies in 2025 fell to $352.1 billion – a 4% decline in nominal terms and nearly a 13% decline when adjusted for inflation. Businesses have become poorer, but their obligations to banks have not decreased.

As always, small and medium-sized businesses proved to be the most vulnerable. 31% of companies ended the year with significant unpaid bills from their counterparties, primarily government agencies, which is telling. For 19% of companies, invoices remained unpaid for over six months. The state, which is already draining resources through mobilization and defense spending, is also failing to pay its suppliers.

While at the beginning of 2025, 27% of companies cited payment issues between counterparties as the main obstacle to their operations, by December that share had risen to 42.3%. The business environment is deteriorating faster than the kremlin can issue triumphant statements.

The pro-kremlin center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting notes an acceleration in the growth of non-payments since mid-2024 and acknowledges a shift in business behavior: companies are increasingly demanding prepayment. The market for mutual trust credit is exhausted.

According to analysts, defaults in russia’s corporate sector will become systemic. The state, which simultaneously keeps the key rate at a stifling level, fails to meet its own payment obligations, and absorbs human and financial resources for the war effort, is systematically destroying the conditions for normal economic activity.