russia Is Once Again Trying to Blackmail Europe and the World with “Little Green Men”

The kremlin has chosen a symbolic date – the anniversary of the occupation of Crimea – to revive its favorite tools of hybrid warfare. This time, they’re wrapped up in legislation.

The government of the rf has submitted to the state duma the amendments to the laws “On citizenship” and “On defense,” which grant putin the right to deploy the army to “protect” russian citizens who are under arrest or facing criminal prosecution based on decisions by foreign courts, particularly those whose jurisdiction is not based on international treaties with moscow. In a word, any verdict from any court that the kremlin deems inconvenient can now serve as a formal pretext for a military operation abroad.

The authors of the draft law present it as a logical extension of the law “On security” –specifically regarding responses to “hostile actions by foreign states”. The document does not specify what exactly constitutes a hostile action or what the “protection” of arrested russians would look like in practice. The deliberate vagueness of the wording here is clearly an advantage, not a flaw.

This legislative maneuver is taking place against the background of a more practical operation on the northern flank. On February 18, the previously dormant “Narva Republic” channel resurfaced on Estonian social media – with an audience of about 700 followers and familiar content: the oppression of russian speakers, demands for autonomy for Ida-Virumaa, and threats of a “full-scale armed conflict” in case of refusal. Ida-Virumaa borders on russia – the geography was chosen deliberately.

The Security Police of Estonia has assessed the operation succinctly: cheap and lacking any pretense of originality. “Similar tactics have been used before – both in Estonia and in other countries. It is a simple way to provoke and intimidate society,” the agency pointed out. Analysts classify the campaign as a psychological operation designed to stoke anxiety in Baltic societies.

In response to signals from moscow, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia Margus Tsahkna has crafted his own message: in case of an attack on the Baltic states, the war will be brought onto the territory of russia.