russia Is Running out of Agricultural Machinery, Increasing the Risk of Food Shortages

The crisis in the russian agricultural machinery market has entered a systemic phase and may directly affect food production. Industry representatives acknowledge that the problems are long-term and related to technological backwardness, which is already creating risks of lower yields.

Sales of agricultural machinery have fallen by 25%. More than 50% of the machine and tractor fleet is worn out, while the renewal rate is only 3.5%, compared to the standard rate of 10%. According to market estimates, the agricultural sector lacks about 62,000 tractors and 34,000 combine harvesters, which indicates a structural deficit in the technical base.

The financial situation is also deteriorating. The high discount rate reduces the industry’s revenues by $5-8 billion annually. The profitability of crop production in 2025 fell to 15-16% compared to 40% in 2020, while  grain production became unprofitable. Export duties further reduce revenues by $2-3 billion annually.

State support for the agricultural sector remains low. According to the organization for economic cooperation and development, subsidies account for only 1–2% of farmers’ incomes in russia, compared to 13–15% in the EU. This limits farmers’ ability to invest in equipment upgrades.

The current regulatory model effectively extracts resources from the industry through duties and taxes and does not encourage modernization. Combined with export restrictions, this undermines the profitability of production and the competitiveness of farmers. In the medium term, this increases the risk of food shortages in the domestic market of the rf and price increases.