russia Paying for the War with Yet Another Logistics Crisis

In the first half of 2026, more than 70% of cargo in the rf was transported by road, making the industry extremely vulnerable to fuel shortages and price hikes. Supply disruptions drove up carriers’ costs, forced them to reevaluate routes, and reshaped the country’s freight flows.

Since mid-July, fuel prices have risen by 16–18%, and since fuel accounts for about one-third of carriers’ expenses, the cost of road transportation has increased by 4.5–5.5%. The elimination of fuel discounts ranging from 7–12% has dealt an additional blow. In response, companies are cutting back on long-haul transportation, canceling routes between remote regions, and focusing on deliveries within individual regions or to the nearest ports.

In parallel, rates have risen: the driver shortage and seasonal demand for perishable goods have been compounded by higher tolls on federal highways. In July, truck rates rose by 12–15% compared to June, and on some routes – by as much as 50%.

Routes from China have been hit the hardest. Due to the fuel crisis in the trans-baikal territory – through which the main cargo flow from China passes – rates jumped by 20–25% compared to May–June, and the cost of shipping cargo from China to moscow rose from $10,000–11,000 to $14,000.

Companies are trying to shift some of their cargo to railway and sea transport: demand for direct railway transportation has increased by approximately 18–20%, and for sea transportation – by 10–12%. However, limited capacity and longer delivery times prevent these routes from compensating for the loss of road transport, so logistics is only becoming more complicated and expensive.

Market participants do not expect rates to return to pre-crisis levels even after fuel supplies stabilize: they forecast a decline of no more than 7–10%, as carriers will try to recoup losses from downtime and underutilization of their fleets. Combined with the driver shortage, this makes the rise in logistics costs a structural phenomenon.

The crisis will speed up market consolidation around large operators capable of building up fuel reserves and operating at lower profit margins. The exit of small carriers will reduce the supply of services and keep rates high even after supplies normalize, while remote regions of russia will become even more dependent on a limited number of carriers – resulting in a corresponding difference in delivery costs between the country’s center and its periphery.