russian Scholars Acknowledge Stagnation: Budgetary “Doping” No Longer Saves the Economy of the rf

russian researchers and economists can no longer hide the reality of the situation and are openly stating that in 2026 russia is entering a period of stagnation. According to a new study by researchers natalia zubarevich and sergey safronov, the economic “doping” from budget injections has finally run out, and  the year 2025 marked the official beginning of irreversible stagnation and crisis. Harsh sanctions, sky-high defense spending, and a record-high key interest rate are destroying what remains of economic resilience, severing ties between regions, and bringing the civilian sectors closer to complete collapse.

The industrial decline has already affected 41 regions  of russia – a worse figure than in the first year of russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. All “successes” are concentrated exclusively in regions with defense plants. The rest are deeply in the red. The export-dependent regions of the European North and Northwest have effectively lost their markets, while the logistical pivot toward Asia has proven too costly and unprofitable, leading to a 20–26% drop in industrial output in some regions.

A similar decline is evident in the investment and construction sectors. Half of the regions have experienced weak growth or a direct decline in capital investment, while in some industrial centers, such as the kuzbass, investment has nearly halved. The elimination of preferential mortgages dealt a severe blow to the housing market in 34 regions, while the official “records” for new housing completions turned out to be nothing more than paper manipulation – the mass, forced registration of long-built dachas and private homes to meet national targets.

Behind the facade of “historically low” unemployment lies a massive, hidden crisis in the labor market. In the fourth quarter of 2025, production downtime at enterprises increased by a third, while underemployment initiated by employers nearly doubled. More than 3.7 million people were placed on unpaid leave, and key automobile plants in industrial centers – from samara region to Tatarstan – switched en masse to a 4-day workweek due to a lack of demand and components.

The overall growth in household income also turned out to be an illusion that has nothing to do with reality. The main driver was not wages, but high interest rates on bank deposits against the background of a draconian key rate. At this, nearly 30% of the country’s total savings are concentrated in moscow, which has only widened the gap between the wealthy capital and the impoverished provinces, which survive solely on minimal government benefits.

Even traditional metallurgical and chemical giants, such as those in sverdlovsk and chelyabinsk regions, are no longer able to prop up regional budget figures due to falling global prices and sanctions-induced isolation.