russia’s Agricultural Sector Is Entering the Season with the Worst Figures in Eight Years

russia reports record harvests every year. The reality of the 2026 season is quite different.

According to the country’s ministry of agriculture, as of the end of May, the rf had sown only 42.3 million hectares out of the planned 83 million. This is the slowest sowing pace since 2018. Spring wheat covers 7–7.1 million hectares instead of the 10.5 million hectares planned, which is by 12% less than a year earlier. The reason is the slow pace of fieldwork in the volga region, siberia, and parts of southern regions.

Against this background, the government of the rf continues to project a harvest of 146–150 million tons of grain this year, compared to 141 million tons in 2025. These figures appear overly optimistic even under normal seasonal conditions, but the season has not been normal so far.

Diesel fuel has become a separate problem. Over the past two months, its price in a number of regions has skyrocketed by 35% and reached 87–90 rubles per liter, or about $1.20. The situation is most acute in belgorod, bryansk, and samara regions. Deliveries are delayed by an average of four days due to planned seasonal demand and unscheduled maintenance at oil refineries. Farmers can neither stop to wait nor pay a price that eats into their already fragile margins.

And the profit margin in the rf is indeed precarious. In the first quarter of 2026, the share of profitable agricultural enterprises fell to 68.6%, down from 77.9% a year earlier. The share of unprofitable enterprises rose to 31.4%. Profits in crop and livestock farming fell by 22.5%, while losses increased 1.6-fold. In rostov region, the average profitability of agricultural producers turned negative.

The reasons for this are clear. Global wheat prices have risen, but this means little for russian farmers: the strengthening of the ruble offsets foreign exchange earnings. Fuel, fertilizers, and equipment are becoming more expensive. Under such circumstances, small and medium-sized farms either reduce their acreage or leave the market.

Plans for a record harvest remain. The chances of achieving them are steadily diminishing.