russia’s Aviation Industry Has No Replacement for Western Aircraft

russian civil aviation is entering a period of heightened risk amid sanctions, component shortages, and the aging fleet. Despite statements about relatively high demand and flight occupancy rates, the industry faces systemic constraints which in the coming years will significantly affect both flight safety and transportation volumes.

The most pessimistic scenario was voiced by head of “rosaviatsiya” dmitry yadrov who predicted the retirement of 339 aircraft by 2030. About 109 foreign aircraft that cannot be fully serviced and 230 obsolete soviet aircraft, which are 40-60 years old, will be taken out of service. Given that ambitious plans for import substitution have effectively failed – only one of the 15 commercial airliners planned for 2025 has been delivered – the industry faces a real risk of a “technical starvation”.

Western sanctions, imposed after the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine, have become the biggest problem for russia, as restrictions on the supply of new aircraft and spare parts from Boeing and Airbus have forced russian carriers to maintain the airworthiness of more than 700 aircraft through parallel imports and dismantling some aircraft for spare parts. In particular, due to problems with spare parts, more than a third of the long-haul aircraft needed for flights to the Far East and abroad are not in operation. Of the 93 foreign wide-body passenger aircraft remaining in russia, fewer than 60 are airworthy. moscow even appealed to the International Civil Aviation Organization to ease sanctions, citing flight safety concerns.

Against this backdground, ural airlines have announced the launch of a program to extend the service life of Airbus A320 family aircraft beyond 96,000 flight hours at its own technical center. Experts warn that carrying out such work outside of manufacturer-certified centers could distance russian aviation from international safety standards. With limited access to original components and manufacturer technical support, this creates additional operational risks.

In the most pessimistic scenario, by 2030, the russian tourism industry will experience a significant decline in domestic and outbound traffic, and regions will face the risk of transport isolation. Long-term consequences may include a decline in flight safety if outdated aircraft continue to be operated without full access to international technical support infrastructure.