SPIEF 2026: Economic Collapse Instead of a “Stable Future”

The current forum, hosted by the aggressor country in st. petersburg, is entitled “pragmatic dialogue – the path to a stable future”. In reality, however, russia is steadily heading toward economic collapse. The main reason is the rise in military spending, while the real needs of the economy are ignored.

The rf’s trade volumes are plummeting. Over the years of armed aggression against Ukraine, russia’s foreign trade balance has shrunk nearly three times – from $337 billion to $125 billion. russia’s top 20 largest exporters are reporting a decline in net profit, including giants such as “rosneft”, “lukoil”, “gazprom”, “novatek”, and “severstal”. Even high-profile foreign economic projects are suffering from a lack of investment. Currently, the “rosatom” state corporation is short of $7 billion to complete construction of the Akkuyu NPP in Turkey. Last year, for the first time in a decade, the rate of investment in fixed capital turned negative. Meanwhile, the share of foreign investment in the rf stands at 0.01%.

Increased tax pressure and large-scale internet blackouts are undermining the confidence of russian businesses and the public in the government. More than 30% of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs in russia are preparing to shut down their businesses, while another 30% are considering ways to transition to “shadow” schemes. As a result, the business climate indicator in russia has turned negative for the first time since 2022. The volume of non-performing loans has risen to 12%, and there has been a record increase in cash circulation. Against this background, the central bank of the rf plans to remove 11 regional banks from the market, as they can no longer hide their problems.

Contrary to the kremlin’s optimistic rhetoric, russia is steadily becoming a “bankrupt state”. Despite high oil prices, russian government revenues have fallen by 40% compared to last year. A budget “hole” of over $80 billion has formed. Against the background of the rapidly growing federal budget deficit, the decline of the regions is accelerating. 71 out of 85 russian regions ended 2025 with budget deficits, and this year the total regional deficit has already exceeded $34 billion.

Despite the kremlin’s attempts to demonstrate mythical achievements and prospects during SPIEF 2026, the failures of the putin regime’s economic policy are becoming evident even to “friendly countries”.