The Banking Crisis in russia Is Already Underway – Just in a Hidden Form

Signs of a systemic crisis have already been observed in russia’s banking sector. This is stated in a report by the pro-kremlin center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF).

Analysts point out that the share of non-performing assets in the russian banking system has exceeded 10%. According to IMF methodology, this level is considered the threshold for the onset of a systemic banking crisis. The indicator has remained above the critical threshold for the third consecutive month.

The CMASF emphasizes that the crisis is currently “latent in nature”.  The deterioration in asset quality is masked by the restructuring of overdue loans and the dominance of state-owned banks, which helps avoid panic among depositors and maintain the appearance of stability of the financial system.

Over the past 12 months, the rf’s GDP growth has slowed down to 0.4%, and the negative trend that persisted throughout 2025 continues into early 2026.

An additional sign of the deteriorating situation is the sharp increase in overdue intercompany receivables, which have exceeded 8 trillion rubles for the first time, or 3.8% of russia’s GDP. Nearly half of russian companies cited payment delays from counterparties as the main problem of the past year.