The kremlin’s Plans for Import Substitution Are Collapsing amid the Critical Technological Dependence

Internal assessments by the ministry of economic development of the rf show that the economy remains critically dependent on imports of high-tech products, despite the kremlin’s official statements about accelerated import substitution. This undermines the realism of the six-year plan to transform the economy by 2030, which envisages achieving 70-90% technological independence in strategic sectors, from machine building and aviation to energy engineering and chemical industry.

The actual figures are significantly lagging behind the declared goals. Technological independence in high-speed railway transport is only 15%, in shipbuilding and energy – 30%, in the production of unmanned systems – 40%, and in industrial engineering – about 65%. Restrictions on access to Western technologies have not reduced import dependence, they have changed its structure: China’s share in the supply of microchips to the rf has grown to about 90%, creating new long-term risks of unilateral dependence.

Given the significant gap between plans and reality, as well as limited production, technological, and human resources, achieving the declared level of technological independence by 2030 is highly unlikely. The current dynamics indicates that russia’s course towards “technological sovereignty” is largely declarative in nature and is not supported by the existing capabilities of the economy.