To Save putin’s Approval Rating, the kremlin’s Pollsters Had to Change Their Methodology

The pro-kremlin analytical center “vtsiom” was forced to change its polling methodology. Starting in May 2026, a “combined sample” system was introduced to replace telephone interviews: half of the respondents are surveyed by phone and the rest are surveyed at home through door-to-door interviews.

The timing of the reform was no accident. From late December to late April, putin’s “approval” rating dropped by 12.2%, setting a record low since the 2018 pension reform. During the week of April 13–19, the figure reached 65.6% – the lowest level since the start of the full-scale war. Since February 2022, it had mostly remained in the 75–80% range.

The reaction was predictable. The center suspended the publication of weekly ratings, offering a flimsy excuse of “May holidays”: May 8 was a regular workday in russia, and last year “vtsiom” calmly published data even on May 9. The surveys continued – only the release of results was halted.

As soon as the new methodology was implemented, the ratings went up. During the week of May 4–10, “approval” rose to 66.8%, and “trust” went from 71% to 72.1%. The mechanics is clear: telephone surveys better capture irritation and dissatisfaction among those willing to speak frankly. Door-to-door surveys paint a different picture – the pollster comes to your home, looks you in the eye, and records your answer. Under such circumstances, respondents feign loyalty. In fact, all russian polls measure not putin’s popularity, but rather the level of fear of speaking the truth.

Alternative data confirm that there was indeed something to hide. According to a May 7 poll by the “levada center”, only 43% of russians say they are closely following the course of the fighting – an all-time low since records began. In early March 2022, that figure was 64%. Support for the army has fallen to 69%. 62% of those surveyed want peace talks, while only 27% support continuing the war.

This sociological fiasco was the result of putin’s public humiliation surrounding the May 9 parade. To ensure it took place, the kremlin begged Washington to secure the event against possible Ukrainian strikes. In response, President Zelenskyy signed a decree authorizing the show – the parade took place without equipment or dignity, but with unprecedented security measures and an internet blackout. The event, intended to intimidate the world, took place solely out of Ukraine’s goodwill.

Manipulating approval ratings does not change the essence of the matter – the kremlin no longer views its own polls as confirmation of loyalty.