A New Collapse Is Brewing in the rf’s Real Estate Market

Despite the authorities’ attempts to artificially support the sector, russia’s real estate market is entering a new phase of recession. As of early December 2025, the volume of closed real estate investment deals had decreased by 34 % compared to the previous year. The deepest decline was recorded in investments in development space – minus 53 %. Investment in office assets decreased by 52 %, and in warehouse facilities – by 20 %. The dynamics shows that even structurally important market segments are losing investors.

Despite this, russia’s authorities continue to support the positions of large financial and industrial groups, insisting on an increase in the cost of primary real estate. However, buyers are reacting in the opposite way. The gap between prices in the primary and secondary markets has already reached 61 %, and in the regions – up to 84 %. The average price for a square meter in new buildings is about 300,000 rubles, while in the secondary market it is only 163,000 rubles. Secondary prices are expected to continue to decrease amid a deepening crisis of confidence caused by a series of fraud cases. Realtors are already calling this the “Dolina effect”, – after the name of the singer and member of “United russia”, who was at the center of a high-profile real estate scandal.

Pressure is also mounting on the luxury real estate segment – a market that has traditionally remained immune to cyclical downturns. Even here, prices are falling rapidly, but there is no demand. A telling example: a house in Rublyovka, designed by the renowned British architect Zaha Hadid and put up for sale in 2016, was sold in 2024 for only 4.5 billion rubles (approximately $48.4 million at the current exchange rate), compared to the initial price of 9.5 billion rubles ($142 million at the 2016 exchange rate). This is more than a twofold reduction in value. About 10 % of elite suburban properties in the rf have been on the market for over a decade, with no signs of a recovery in demand.

Current trends show that even aggressive administrative intervention cannot reverse the negative dynamics. russia’s real estate market has not reached rock bottom yet, and key indicators point to further deterioration.