belarus’GDP Growth Has Plummeted Nearly Eightfold

According to an analysis by the belarusian project Macro.by, belarus’ GDP growth fell nearly eightfold in August – from 5.4% in July to 0.7%. Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate has declined from 2.1% to 1.9%.

This is largely due to fluctuations in the agricultural sector caused by uneven harvest rates. In July, agriculture contributed 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth, while in August it subtracted 0.6 points. The harvest of grain and rapeseed in August was by nearly 24% lower than last year.

Industry also lost momentum. After growing by 4.9% in July–August, the growth rate stood at only 1.2%. In light industry, production fell by nearly 8%. Manufacturing output declined in the city of minsk and in minsk, mogilev, and vitebsk regions.

The processing sectors are being affected by weaker investment demand in russia and logistical problems in the russian market. This significantly limits the opportunities for belarusian enterprises focused on the rf’s market.

Domestic consumption is still growing. It is supported by budgetary and quasi-budgetary injections and lower interest rates. Domestic trade has increased by 8.4%.

Macro.by estimates that, in the absence of any strong external shocks, belarus’ GDP could grow by 2–2.5% in 2026. At the same time, the broad money supply is likely to increase by more than 20%. This will complicate efforts to reduce inflation, which is forecast at 5–6% in 2026 and 6–7% in 2027.

In other words, even the growth of 2–2.5% will require further injection of money into the economy. This will support demand but, at the same time, maintain high inflationary pressure. Given weaker external demand and problems in the industrial sector, this calls into question the quality of such growth and its ability to be sustained without constant government intervention.