belarusian Budget: Internal Threats, External Debts, Lack of Support from russia

In 2026, the government of belarus is sharply increasing funding for law enforcement agencies – by 1.4 billion rubles – while military spending is being cut by 210 million. This is a clear signal: the authorities see the main danger within the country, not outside it.

Social spending is minimal: the increase in spending on education and social policy is almost entirely eaten up by inflation. The budget deficit is set at 4.3 billion rubles, and the plan is to cover it with internal reserves.

External debt is becoming a critical factor. In 2026, payments are expected to amount to 10.4 billion rubles, twice as much as this year. Refinancing is impossible, and the National Bank’s reserves will be reduced by $4 billion. Over three years, about $8 billion in deferred payments have accumulated, while the debt has actually grown.

Previously, russia’s deferrals saved the situation. But now moscow itself has a budget deficit of 5.6 trillion rubles, which exceeds the balance of the National Welfare Fund. This means that there is no more money for the ally, while on the contrary – the question of debt repayment may arise.

Thus, the belarusian budget for 2026 shows that the regime is focusing on internal control, social spending is being cut, and external debts are becoming an increasingly heavy burden with no prospect of assistance from russia.