Drought, Inflation and Sanctions: the kremlin Has Failed the Agricultural Season

russia has recorded a sharp decline in grain harvest rates. As of July 3, only 3.8 million tons of grain were harvested – four times less than last year (16.5 million tons). The average yield decreased from 41 to 31 centners per hectare.

The Southern and North Caucasus Districts show the biggest lagging behind: 2 million tons against 11.4 million tons and 1.5 million tons against 4.5 million tons last year, respectively. In the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, the harvest almost halved compared to 2024.

The key reasons include prolonged drought (state of emergency in several districts of Rostov region), devaluation of quality seeds due to Western sanctions (loss of up to 70 % of the import fund) and inflationary pressure. Electricity tariffs increased by 11.5 %, petrol rose by 12 % in June alone.

Besides, the government’s export policy has proved ineffective: at low global prices ($222-228 a ton), farmers did not exhaust the wheat export quota, leaving more than 1.8 million tons in the country.