European Intelligence Services: Hybrid Threats from russia and China Continue to Grow

The Military Counterintelligence Service of the FRG (MAD) and Denmark’s Military Intelligence Service (FE) have published their annual threat assessment reports, prepared against the background of the russian-Ukrainian war. Both documents note a further deterioration in the security environment for NATO and EU countries.

The intelligence services of these countries have drawn identical conclusions. russia remains the main source of military, espionage, and hybrid risks. The MAD points out that the Bundeswehr remains a priority target for russia’s intelligence due to its role as a NATO logistics hub and its support for Ukraine. The FE emphasizes that moscow is already waging a hybrid war against NATO. Denmark’s  Military Intelligence assesses the risk of russian sabotage against Danish Armed Forces as “high” and considers a conflict with russia in the Baltic region likely.

The reports identify China  as a long-term strategic threat. Beijing’s intelligence activities include technological and scientific espionage, infiltration into European defense and research programs, and instruments of economic and political influence. According to the MAD, in 2024, the number of the PRC’s  intelligence incidents in Germany increased by 15 % compared to 2023, while Chinese intelligence services systemically involve their own citizens in espionage activities.

The deepening of russian-Chinese cooperation is identified as an additional risk factor. The FE emphasizes China’s supply of components for the russian defense industry, which allows the kremlin to increase arms production.

Special services also predict further growth in hybrid threats. The focus is on larger-scale disinformation operations, economic pressure, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and attempts to destabilize the armed forces of European countries.

The published reports confirm a steady trend: the rf’s hybrid activities are intensifying, while China is gradually increasing its instruments of influence on European states.