Even minsk Doesn’t Believe in a Recovery of russia’s Economy

The regime of belarus does not expect economic growth from russia in 2027. In its forecast for next year, minsk projected near-zero growth for the russian economy. This is particularly important for belarus: about 65% of its merchandise exports go exactly to the russian market.

Under such circumstances, according to the government’s forecast, belarus’ GDP will grow by only 1.9%, and exports – by 2.9%. As recently as 2025, the authorities had optimistically projected 4.1% growth, and 2.8% – for 2026. The actual growth rate for 2025 was 1.3%, and for January–August 2026, it was 1.9%.

minsk no longer sees any reserves that could ensure higher growth rates. russia’s economy, on which a significant portion of belarusian production and exports depends, has itself lost momentum. The rb’s authorities cannot count on a rapid expansion of demand from their main trading partner.

Replacing russian demand with domestic one is also difficult, as belarus faces demographic challenges and a labor shortage.

A significant financial support from moscow is not expected either. Judging by comments from belarusian authorities, the 2027 budget projections do not include aid comparable to this year’s debt write-off (≈ $1.86 billion). Therefore, minsk does not plan to implement large-scale measures to stimulate domestic demand.

The government’s caution is confirmed by independent estimates, which forecast 1.5% growth in belarusian GDP in 2027.

lukashenko insists that minsk will remain on the same course as russia. But the figures in belarusian authorities’ own forecast tell a different story. The regime has tied its economy to russia, which has itself lost the ability to be a source of growth. Now even the kremlin’s closest ally is factoring in the stagnation of the russian economy and the lack of significant aid from moscow in its calculations.