moscow’s Dependence on China Is Growing Despite the Decline in Trade

In the first nine months of 2025, trade between russia and China decreased to $163.6 billion, which is by 9.4 % less than in the same period in 2024.

In 2025, China’s exports to the rf decreased by 11.3 % (to $73.6 billion), while russia’s supplies to China – by 7.7 % (to $90 billion).

The main factor behind the decline was the decrease in prices for energy carriers. The cost of russian energy exports to China in January–September decreased by 18.9 %, or by $14 billion. Oil exports dropped by 8.1 % in physical terms and by 21 % in monetary terms due to the decline in Brent prices.

Another factor was the oversaturation of the russian market with Chinese cars. After record deliveries in 2024, demand more than halved, having decreased by 56 %.

Logistical disruptions caused additional pressure. Queues of trucks formed at the Chinese-Kazakh border in the autumn, while the cost of transportation from China to the rf increased: by railway – by 25 % (to $5,000), by road – by 35 % (to $15,000 for a 20-ton truck). Some sea operators, including CStar Line (UAE) and STF Shipping (China), reduced their voyages to russian ports due to financial limitations and restrictions.

The russian economy’s dependence on exports of energy carriers and metals, most of which are sold to China, makes it increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in demand on the Chinese market and increases its dependence on Beijing.