russia Has Exhausted Its Internal Resources for Supporting the Economy

The rf’s economy is experiencing intensifying recessionary trends, caused by the decline in production and weakening of foreign trade. According to the results of the first three quarters of 2025, a decline in output was recorded in 70 % of the main types of economic activity.

The most noticeable deterioration is taking place in manufacturing – a key sector of domestic production. In the first nine months of the year, production growth was observed in only five out of 24 activities, while a decline was recorded in 17.

Foreign economic dynamics is also showing signs of weakening. Total trade (exports plus imports) declined by more than 3 % compared to the same period in 2024. The trade surplus decreased by 11 % to US$102 billion. Total exports of goods decreased by 4.6 % to US$303 billion over the first nine months.

Against the background of declining industrial activity, annual GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2025 are forecast to approach zero.

russia’s economy is effectively entering a phase of structural slowdown: growth rates remain below the level needed to offset the effects of inflation. Stagnation in the manufacturing sector indicates that the kremlin is gradually exhausting its internal resources for supporting economic growth.