russia—in a Demographic Abyss Three Decades Ahead of the Rest of the World

While the international community is only now beginning to notice the global aging of the population, russia plunged into a deep demographic crisis as early as the beginning of the 1990s. The number of elderly people in russia has long exceeded the number of young children, and the generational gap is widening every year, leaving the country with no demographic future.

The inverted age structure of the population attests to these catastrophic trends. While in the late 1980s the number of children under five and people over 65 was roughly the same – about 14.5 million people – the situation has become critical over the past few decades. The number of kids has more than halved – to 6.5 million – while the number of retirees has risen to 23.7 million.

The main driving force behind this demographic decline is a chronically low birth rate, which is significantly below the level required even for simple population replacement. Despite government experts’ regular statements about the country’s being “relatively  young” compared to Japan or the EU, the actual figures point to a severe decline in the working-age population and an unsustainable burden on the social welfare system.

russians are not only aging, they are facing a lack of prospects for replenishing the workforce. The steady decline in the proportion of children means that in just one or two decades, the country will face an acute shortage of young professionals, and there will simply be no one left to give birth to a new generation.

russia has effectively taken the lead in this negative global trend, being ahead of  the global demographic turning point by nearly 30 years. Against the background of economic and social problems, the country is steadily moving down the path of depopulation, transforming into a state with dwindling demographic potential.