russia’s Budget for 2027–2029: War, Debt, and Corruption

The accounts chamber of the rf has identified serious shortcomings in the draft federal budget for 2027–2029. Some budget estimates are not consistent with the budget parameters, while revenue projections lack adequate justification.

At the time the draft law was submitted, the justifications for $288.24 billion in appropriations – or 77% of the expenditures in the public portion of the 2027 budget – did not comply with the budget’s parameters. The budget documents also lack calculations for 13 types of revenue totaling $9.72 billion.

More than 35% of the measures and planned outcomes of government programs are evaluated solely based on actual implementation, without quantitative performance indicators. Measures without specific performance criteria are allocated $64.71 billion in 2027 and $81.18 billion in 2029. At this, approximately 85% of the reserved funds have not been allocated to specific areas of use. The auditors also pointed out problems with the implementation of investment programs and project preparation.

Public debt service costs are projected to rise by 45.7% by 2029 compared to the expected level in 2026 – to $66.82 billion. This will account for 10.5% of federal expenditures, leaving less money for other government needs. At the same time, the draft budget does not include a complete breakdown of interbudgetary transfers among the regions of the rf.

As a result, the kremlin’s priority remains not only funding the war against Ukraine, but also engaging in corrupt schemes involving public funds through opaque budget planning.