russia’s Influence Neutralized: Armenia Has Finally Turned Away from moscow and Toward Europe

The kremlin’s playbook – “punish a rebellious neighbor with a cognac ban” – no longer works. For years, russia viewed Armenia as its unquestionable outpost and pocket partner in the South Caucasus, but after yet another failed special operation dubbed “interference in the Armenian elections”, russia is finally losing its influence in the region. Pro-russian forces suffered a crushing defeat in the parliamentary elections, and instead of the expected submissive apology, the kremlin received from Nikol Pashinyan a firm distancing and a shift toward the West.

In response to the Armenian people’s choice, rospotrebnadzor predictably “suddenly” found a threat in apricots, cherries, fish, “Jermuk” water, and Armenian cognac. These sweeping trade restrictions, designed to cripple Armenia ahead of the harvest season, were meant to drive Yerevan into a corner. But the kremlin forgot that we’re no longer in the 1990s, and instead of economic collapse and repentance, moscow received outright trolling: Pashinyan ironically “thanked” his colleagues in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) for recognizing the right to seek trade alternatives and stated outright that if the union is paralyzed by russia’s antics, it would mark “the beginning of the end of the EAEU”.

moscow’s main trump card in the region was played out as early as the autumn of 2023. For years, the kremlin had kept Yerevan and Baku “on the hook” with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, when Azerbaijan regained control of Karabakh in two days, russian “peacekeepers” merely played the role of extras and shamefully left the region ahead of schedule. This fiasco was compounded by a failure to fulfill military obligations: when Azerbaijan advanced into Armenian territory itself in September 2022, the CSTO, instead of offering assistance, suggested “resolving the border issue”. After such “protection,” russia’s trust rating in Armenia hit rock bottom, plummeting to shocking all-time lows.

Realizing that its nominal “ally” was capable only of manipulation, Yerevan made a 180-degree turn. While russia was blocking apricot imports, Brussels opened its markets and allocated tens of millions of dollars as part of the “Growth Plan for Armenia”. moscow’s monopoly on control of the South Caucasus has officially been reduced to zero.

The kremlin’s latest blackmail tactics – such as threats to raise gas prices or exert pressure through infrastructure in Yerevan—are also ready to be nullified. Pashinyan hinted that if moscow decides to raise prices, Armenia will bring up the 102nd russian military base and the railway networks, for which the russians could now be billed $2 billion for their operation and maintenance. Thus, any attempts at financial pressure will result in even greater losses for russia.

Against the background of the signing of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and the opening of the borders with Türkiye, Yerevan is finally pulling the rug out from under moscow’s feet, stripping it of any leverage. And the final chord in the kremlin’s geopolitical defeat is Armenia’s announced decision to begin the process of submitting an official application for membership in the European Union.