Sanctions Pressure Hits the rf’s Trade with China: Minus 6.8 % for the Quarter

In January-March, trade between russia and China decreased by 6.8 % to USD 53.2 billion compared to the same period in 2024. Exports decreased to USD 30.5 billion (minus 6.7 %), while imports declined to USD 22.7 billion (-6.3 %). At this, the biggest decline was in February, when imports to China amounted to USD 5.8 billion, the lowest since June 2022.

In terms of commodities, there was a decrease in imports of oil, oil products and gas to China (70 % of total russian exports) to USD 20.2 billion (-16 % in annual terms).

The volume of exports of fertilizers (-29 %), edible oils (-25 %), timber (-7 %), and grain (-3.3 %) also decreased.

In the structure of imports of Chinese goods to russia, the greatest decline was in the supply of automobiles and components (-38 %). At the same time, imports from China to russia of industrial equipment (+6 % over the year), optics (+10 %), ferrous metal products (+22 %), and organic chemistry (+8 %) increased.

The main reason for the decline in trade between China and russia is the decline in the purchasing power of russians amid high interest rates on consumer loans in the rf, as the average rate reaches 30 %.

Other reasons include restrictions on bank settlements and the threat of secondary sanctions against Chinese companies; the strengthening of the ruble, which leads to a decrease in the value of Chinese imports to russia in ruble terms; and the decline in world oil prices.

The decline in trade is evidence of the effectiveness of Western sanctions. This trend will continue in 2025 within 5–10 %. According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, russia will try to restructure its exports to China – instead of commodities, the emphasis will shift to trade in metals, particularly copper and aluminum. At the same time, the growth potential of this segment is limited, as it is much less profitable and large-scaled than energy trade.