Systemic Sugar Crisis in russia and belarus: Surplus and Price Collapse in 2026

The record sugar beet harvest in the rb – about 5 million tons – turned out to be a risk factor rather than an advantage. The key export market – the rf – is already oversaturated with cheap sugar, and this imbalance is only getting worse. New production, old stocks, and imports from belarus are putting pressure on prices, sharply worsening the economy for both farmers and processors.

In 2025, sugar production in russia will exceed 6.4 million tons, almost as much as last year. With domestic consumption at 5.6–5.7 million tons, imports of about 0.3 million tons, and stocks of 0.35 million tons, the country needs to export up to 1.5 million tons to avoid a collapse of the domestic market. russia has only managed to sell this amount abroad once – in the 2019/2020 season. Under today’s circumstances, this seems unlikely.

The consequences are obvious. Sugar prices in russia are decreasing, destroying the industry’s profitability. While in 2024, average prices exceeded 51,000 rubles per ton, in October 2025, they dropped to 42,200 and are by 15 % lower than last year’s level in early December. This has a direct impact on belarusian suppliers.

The external environment leaves no room for maneuver. Global sugar prices are at their lowest in five years. The global market is once again in surplus – 4.2 million tons – and the surplus will grow in the 2025/2026 season due to activity of India and Thailand. At the same time, access to the white sugar market is severely restricted: importing countries protect their own producers.

The situation is no less threatening for belarus. With production of 650–660 thousand tons, the domestic market absorbs only slightly more than half. The rest traditionally goes to russia and post-soviet countries – markets that are currently in a crisis of surplus themselves.

After the relatively successful 2024, when sales and profits grew, in 2026 the sugar industry faces not a question of growth, but a question of survival. At current prices and structural constraints, the year 2026 will be a crisis year for the entire industry.