Taiwan, Chips, and the War in Ukraine: Chinese Analysts Have Identified the Main Security Threats to Beijing for 2026

Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) has released a report on external security threats to China in 2026. Experts assessed the risks based on likelihood of occurrence, scale of consequences, and manageability of the situation.

The Taiwan Strait remains the most pressing issue. The CISS warns of three related scenarios: an escalation around Taiwan due to the island’s growing ties with the USA and Japan’s increasing role; a deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations over the Diaoyu Islands and US missiles; and tensions in the South China Sea, exacerbated by the Philippines’ chairmanship of ASEAN and the tenth anniversary of the 2016 Hague arbitration ruling, which even then recognized Beijing’s claims to “historic rights” in the region as groundless. The authors consider the most dangerous scenario to be a clash between Chinese and Philippine vessels resulting in casualties near Second Thomas Shoal, which could draw the USA and Japan into the conflict.

The second set of risks concerns technological and economic pressure from Washington: restrictions on the export of graphics processors and lithography equipment, attempts to establish alternative to China supply chains for rare earth metals, as well as China’s trade surplus of over one trillion dollars, which is fueling protectionism in the USA and the EU.

Separately, CISS analyzes the impact of russia’s war against Ukraine on Beijing’s calculations. An escalation of the conflict threatens to spread tensions to the Baltic region, lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and moscow, result in the closure of the Polish-belarusian border, cause disruptions to the “China-Europe Railway Express” route, and intensify Western pressure on China to help bring the war to an end. At the same time, a separate agreement between Washington and the kremlin would also be disadvantageous for Beijing: the USA would gain more resources to contain China, post-war russia would seek to reduce its dependence on China, while Europe and Ukraine would intensify their criticism of Beijing for supporting moscow.

According to the CISS, the fourth category of threats consists of AI-based cyberattacks targeting financial systems, power grids, undersea cables, and pipelines, as well as a potential breakthrough in quantum computing capable of compromising banks and secure communication channels.

The report’s main conclusion is that what is critical for Beijing is not the outcome of russia’s war against Ukraine, but the loss of its ability to manage the war’s consequences. A defeat for moscow would weaken China’s partner and destabilize the border region, while a rapprochement between the kremlin and the West would reduce russia’s dependence on Beijing. Therefore, China’s policy will continue to focus on containing escalation, preventing russia’s defeat, and blocking its rapid return to relations with the West.