The New BelNPP Power Unit Will Deepen minsk’s Debt Dependence on moscow

belarus has announced plans to build a third power unit at BelNPP, while not giving up the idea of a new nuclear project in Mogilev region. This is happening despite the fact that current electricity production fully covers the demand – largely thanks to artificial stimulation of consumption to avoid a surplus.

According to 2022’s data, two units of the belarusian nuclear power plant already generated about 5 % of the surplus. The authorities increased the load on the grid, in particular through the switching to electric heating, but this did not create a need for additional nuclear capacity. In 2024, electricity consumption reached 43.2 billion kWh, with nuclear power plants meeting 40 % of the demand. The construction of a new unit will again lead to a surplus, which belarus has virtually nowhere to export.

Promises to replace 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas annually also failed to materialize: in 2023, russian gas imports amounted to 17 billion cubic meters – only by 2 billion less than in 2021. Official minsk has stated that it will maintain the same purchase volumes, which indicates that there has been no real reduction in dependence.

The BelNPP was built mainly with a russian loan: of the $6.838 billion in financing, $5.36 billion was a loan from moscow. In fact, belarusians are paying both for electricity and for the loan to produce it. The new power unit will also be financed by russian debt, which will increase the burden on the budget and taxpayers.