The rb’s Food Market Under moscow’s Control: from Lard to Milk

In 2025, belarus’ pork market is in rapid decline: production has decreased by 12 %, livestock numbers – by 121,000, while in some regions livestock has virtually disappeared. Against this background, russia is aggressively increasing exports, turning belarus into a dependent market. Pork supplies from the rf have grown by a third, having exceeded 324,000 tons – by 26 % more than last year – and are effectively squeezing out local producers.

russia’s meat market is experiencing a decline in domestic demand, which has made wholesale prices drop to the level of the year 2023. In December, all categories became cheaper, but pork – the most. Competition with Chinese producers has intensified the pressure: prices for certain parts of pork carcasses in russia have fallen below the cost of chicken fillets from the PRC. This has forced russian suppliers to aggressively export their products to belarus, undermining the positions of local collective farms.

belarus has become the main importer of russian lard, receiving about 80 % of exports, over 10,000 tons worth almost $15 million. Supplies have increased by 4 % in physical terms and by 29 % in monetary terms. The situation is similar in the dairy segment: exports of russian milk and cream in containers have increased by 23 %, and belarus has become one of the three largest buyers, receiving 10 % of the total volume worth $40 million.

Against this background, sociological surveys show worsening of moods: a third of respondents have reported a deterioration in the economic situation and their own well-being. Negative assessments have increased, while positive ones have decreased. This underscores the main trend: russia is not just supplying products, it is displacing belarusian producers from the key driver of the economy – the food sector, turning the country into a dependent appendage of its own market.