Ukraine and the World – Against russia’s Aggression. Sanctions in Action

“...The prosperity of a free Ukrainian state lies ultimately in joining the EU, which is also a key security guarantee,” said President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

Secretary General of the Council of Europe Alain Berset has named the key principles that must be met by the potential parameters for ending russia’s war against Ukraine: ensuring russia’s responsibility for the war and the crimes committed; compliance of the peace parameters with international law; appropriate security guarantees and safeguards against russia’s new attack. “Certain political compromises may be inevitable in any peace agreement. But we must be aware that concessions on key principles, such as accountability, have long-term consequences for stability,” said the Secretary General of the Council of Europe.

Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk has called the USA’s declared willingness to participate in security guarantees for Ukraine after peace is achieved, “including the presence of American troops, for example, on the border or on the line of contact between Ukraine and russia,” a “key result of recent days.”

“We are moving the peace process forward. Now we need transparency and honesty from everyone, including russia,” said Chancellor of the FRG Friedrich Merz.

President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda has pointed out the efforts of the USA and Ukraine in trying to end the war started by russia. “However, so far we have seen an extremely limited response from the kremlin, and this does not allow us to be completely optimistic,” he said.

In 2025, Ukraine attracted more than $52.4 billion in foreign aid, of which more than 70 % came from frozen russian assets: $37.9 billion – ERA Loans (conditional debt obligations); $12.1 billion – EU, Ukraine Facility ($11.5 billion – loans, $668 million – grants); $912 million – IMF (loans); $733 million – World Bank (loans); $453 million – Japan (loans); $232 million – EBRD (loans).

In December, Ukraine received EUR 83.6 million in loan financing from the European Investment Bank (EIB) for six projects aimed at developing urban infrastructure.

Norway will allocate NOK 40 million (almost UAH 168 million) to support agriculture in Ukraine.

Cabinet of Ministers of Italy has approved a decree on further military aid to Ukraine for 2026.

rf

The prosecutor general’s office of the rf has recognized the George Washington University as an undesirable organization. It allegedly “regularly provides a platform for anti-russian speeches and reports aimed at discrediting the rf”, in particular in connection with the conduct of the “special military operation”.

“The probability of a recession in the russian economy is rapidly increasing,” points out the centre for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting, which is close to the kremlin. The signal of a high probability of recession was given based on June statistics, and since then it has been growing stronger every month. The signal is given by the center’s leading indicator of entering a recession. In October, its value rose sharply to 0.32 (up from 0.24 a month earlier), remaining above the critical threshold (0.18). By July 2026, russia’s economy is highly likely to enter a recession.

Discounts on russian oil shipments at seaports at the end of 2025, as in the spring of 2022, approached historic highs, and this, combined with low global prices and sanctions restrictions, puts exports on the verge of profitability. Discounts on Urals crude relative to Brent have reached $20–30 per barrel, and some russian oil producers have faced unprofitable production due to low export parity, while those companies which continue to generate revenue have remained profitable largely thanks to a preferential production tax rate.

“The share of oil and gas revenues in the russian budget will decline in the medium and long term as low-cost hydrocarbon reserves are depleted,” said minister of finance of the rf anton siluanov.

gazprom’s supplies to Europe in 2025 fell by 44 % to about 18 billion cubic meters. russian gas exports to European countries decreased to the level of the mid-1970s.

In December, russian oil supplies to India will fall to their lowest level in three years. This month’s supply will amount to about 1.1 million barrels per day.

After the decline in oil and gas revenues and the shortfall in non-resource taxes, the budget of the rf is facing a sharp decrease in revenues from state-owned corporations, which control about a third of russia’s economy. In 2026, dividend income from these companies to the budget will decrease by 398 billion rubles, or 36 %.

russian authorities have been unable to stabilize the cost of diesel fuel after the autumn shortage at filling stations in different regions of the rf. Average prices per liter of this fuel are rising every week, with jumps usually ranging from 15 to 51 kopecks.

Over the past three years, footwear in russia has risen in price by 59 %, and clothing – by 36 %.

For the second year in a row, “rzd” is sharply cutting back on its investment program due to its deteriorating financial situation. In 2026, “russian railways” will spend 713.6 billion rubles on investments. Compared to the current year (890.9 billion rubles), the company’s investment program will decrease by a quarter, and compared to 2024 (1.5 trillion rubles), it will half. The cost of purchasing railway carriages and locomotives will amount to 161.7 billion rubles. This is by 37 % less than was budgeted for the current year (257.2 billion rubles). Funding for railway construction will decrease by 20 % – 182.2 billion rubles compared to 225.6 billion. Expenditures on the repair of tracks, rolling stock, and infrastructure will be reduced to 288 billion rubles from 298 billion this year.

In 2025, diamond reserves in russia did not increase. The total amount of state investment in diamond exploration is more than 2 billion rubles.

The cost of black tea in russia’s retail trade increased by 15.7 % in the period from December 20 to 27 alone.

As of 2025, russia had only 307 satellites—3.2 times fewer than China, and 27 times fewer than the USA. The country, which until recently topped the world rankings, slipped to third place, behind the USA and China, and by the end of 2025, it was even overtaken by New Zealand with 17 launches. With 90 launches, China is five times ahead of russia, and the USA is more than ten times ahead.

Only one of the six russian “Tundra” satellites launched into orbit remains operational. “Tundra” satellites are the space component of russia’s missile attack warning system.

Since 2015, the purchasing power of maternity capital in the russian housing market has halved. The cost per square meter has been rising faster than the indexation of payments. Ten years ago, maternity capital could buy an average of about 8.7 square meters of housing in a new building in the regions. At that time, payments for the second child amounted to 453,000 rubles. At the end of 2024, despite the introduction of maternity capital for the first child, this figure fell to 3.6 square meters. The payment for the first child amounted to 630,000 rubles. The situation remained roughly the same in 2025: maternity capital can be used to purchase approximately 3.5–4 square meters of housing with capital of 690,000 rubles for the first child. The amounts and square meter indicators vary by region. However, in large cities, maternity capital is not even enough for the initial mortgage payment.

As part of preparations to create a line of defense in the Baltic region along the borders with russia and belarus, authorities of Lithuania are placing “engineering structures for attaching explosives” on border bridges.

Lithuania has also extended its ban on the land transit of dual-use goods that could end up in russia and belarus and be used in the war against Ukraine.

The increase in the positive balance of trade in services, which amounted to more than $400 million in October, did not help belarus’ foreign trade balance. A deficit of almost $580 million in goods brought the negative balance to $1.19 billion.

The proportion of loss-making organizations in the rb increased over the year. Overall, this indicator rose to 15.4 % in January–October. The negative trend was observed in all regions and the capital.

The number of working pensioners in belarus is increasing. Currently, there are more than 480,000 of them in the country. This is by 27,000 more than there were before January 1 this year.

The decision to ban 52 publications was made by the republican commission for the evaluation of symbols, attributes, and information products. “All these publications are capable of harming the national interests of our country,” said the ministry of information of the rb. If banned books are found on sale, the sellers will have their licenses revoked. The list of 225 items includes, for example, books by russian writer Vladimir Sorokin, a publication about the BPR by Dorota Mikhaliuk, and books by American author William Burroughs. It also includes “The Man in the High Castle” by American science fiction writer Philip Dick. The first item on the list is a book for schoolchildren entitled “Our Neighbors on the Planet: Stories About Wild Animals”, by authors Bouwien Jansen and Lotte Stegeman.